Mimir concept index
Knowledge entries for betting math and prediction-market concepts. Hover over jargon terms in any concept page to see plain-English definitions.
aggregation
consensus-fair-line draft
Combining multiple books' devigged lines into a single consensus fair probability
position-aggregation draft
Combining multiple fills, lots, and venues into a single per-side exposure view (qty, stake, win) — Kairos's bucket-keyed reconstruction
american-odds
kalshi-yes-to-american-odds draft
Converting a Kalshi Yes (or No) cent price to the American-odds equivalent for the right outcome — the conversion that bridges Kalshi binary markets to sportsbook quotes
arb
two-way-arbitrage draft
Identifying a guaranteed-profit opportunity by combining one side at one venue with the opposite side at another, when their fair-cost implied probabilities sum to less than 1
arbitrage
two-way-arbitrage draft
Identifying a guaranteed-profit opportunity by combining one side at one venue with the opposite side at another, when their fair-cost implied probabilities sum to less than 1
binary
binary-market
kalshi-yes-no-semantics draft
What Yes and No contracts mean on a Kalshi binary market, what each price represents, and why the two prices both exist
blended-position
kalshi-spread-strike-mechanics draft
How Kalshi expresses spread and total markets as a ladder of independent binary markets — and how this composes with cross-strike blended positions
consensus
consensus-fair-line draft
Combining multiple books' devigged lines into a single consensus fair probability
contracts
kalshi-yes-no-semantics draft
What Yes and No contracts mean on a Kalshi binary market, what each price represents, and why the two prices both exist
conversion
kalshi-yes-to-american-odds draft
Converting a Kalshi Yes (or No) cent price to the American-odds equivalent for the right outcome — the conversion that bridges Kalshi binary markets to sportsbook quotes
cross-book
two-way-arbitrage draft
Identifying a guaranteed-profit opportunity by combining one side at one venue with the opposite side at another, when their fair-cost implied probabilities sum to less than 1
devig
vig-adjusted-ev draft
EV computed against a devigged fair line vs. EV computed against the raw vigged book line, and why the distinction matters
edge
vig-adjusted-ev draft
EV computed against a devigged fair line vs. EV computed against the raw vigged book line, and why the distinction matters
ev
expected-value-basic draft
What expected value is for a single bet, the formula, sign convention, and units
vig-adjusted-ev draft
EV computed against a devigged fair line vs. EV computed against the raw vigged book line, and why the distinction matters
evaluation
vf-and-mba-targets draft
VF (vig-free) and MBA (Major Book Average) reference prices, and how to derive evaluation targets from them via the cross-side flip
expected-value
expected-value-basic draft
What expected value is for a single bet, the formula, sign convention, and units
exposure
blended-spread-position draft
When you hold positions across multiple strikes of the same spread or total market, your true exposure is an outcome-by-outcome payoff curve — not a sum of stakes
position-aggregation draft
Combining multiple fills, lots, and venues into a single per-side exposure view (qty, stake, win) — Kairos's bucket-keyed reconstruction
fair-line
consensus-fair-line draft
Combining multiple books' devigged lines into a single consensus fair probability
fills
position-aggregation draft
Combining multiple fills, lots, and venues into a single per-side exposure view (qty, stake, win) — Kairos's bucket-keyed reconstruction
fundamentals
expected-value-basic draft
What expected value is for a single bet, the formula, sign convention, and units
kalshi-yes-no-semantics draft
What Yes and No contracts mean on a Kalshi binary market, what each price represents, and why the two prices both exist
kalshi-yes-to-american-odds draft
Converting a Kalshi Yes (or No) cent price to the American-odds equivalent for the right outcome — the conversion that bridges Kalshi binary markets to sportsbook quotes
hedging
two-way-arbitrage draft
Identifying a guaranteed-profit opportunity by combining one side at one venue with the opposite side at another, when their fair-cost implied probabilities sum to less than 1
hooks
blended-spread-position draft
When you hold positions across multiple strikes of the same spread or total market, your true exposure is an outcome-by-outcome payoff curve — not a sum of stakes
implied-probability
two-way-arbitrage draft
Identifying a guaranteed-profit opportunity by combining one side at one venue with the opposite side at another, when their fair-cost implied probabilities sum to less than 1
kalshi
kalshi-spread-strike-mechanics draft
How Kalshi expresses spread and total markets as a ladder of independent binary markets — and how this composes with cross-strike blended positions
kalshi-yes-no-semantics draft
What Yes and No contracts mean on a Kalshi binary market, what each price represents, and why the two prices both exist
kalshi-yes-to-american-odds draft
Converting a Kalshi Yes (or No) cent price to the American-odds equivalent for the right outcome — the conversion that bridges Kalshi binary markets to sportsbook quotes
position-aggregation draft
Combining multiple fills, lots, and venues into a single per-side exposure view (qty, stake, win) — Kairos's bucket-keyed reconstruction
two-way-arbitrage draft
Identifying a guaranteed-profit opportunity by combining one side at one venue with the opposite side at another, when their fair-cost implied probabilities sum to less than 1
key-numbers
blended-spread-position draft
When you hold positions across multiple strikes of the same spread or total market, your true exposure is an outcome-by-outcome payoff curve — not a sum of stakes
lots
position-aggregation draft
Combining multiple fills, lots, and venues into a single per-side exposure view (qty, stake, win) — Kairos's bucket-keyed reconstruction
manual
position-aggregation draft
Combining multiple fills, lots, and venues into a single per-side exposure view (qty, stake, win) — Kairos's bucket-keyed reconstruction
market-structure
book-vig-overround draft
What sportsbook vig is, how to compute market overround, and what the magnitudes mean
mba
vf-and-mba-targets draft
VF (vig-free) and MBA (Major Book Average) reference prices, and how to derive evaluation targets from them via the cross-side flip
multi-book
consensus-fair-line draft
Combining multiple books' devigged lines into a single consensus fair probability
odds
book-vig-overround draft
What sportsbook vig is, how to compute market overround, and what the magnitudes mean
consensus-fair-line draft
Combining multiple books' devigged lines into a single consensus fair probability
overround
book-vig-overround draft
What sportsbook vig is, how to compute market overround, and what the magnitudes mean
payoff
blended-spread-position draft
When you hold positions across multiple strikes of the same spread or total market, your true exposure is an outcome-by-outcome payoff curve — not a sum of stakes
position
blended-spread-position draft
When you hold positions across multiple strikes of the same spread or total market, your true exposure is an outcome-by-outcome payoff curve — not a sum of stakes
kalshi-spread-strike-mechanics draft
How Kalshi expresses spread and total markets as a ladder of independent binary markets — and how this composes with cross-strike blended positions
position-aggregation draft
Combining multiple fills, lots, and venues into a single per-side exposure view (qty, stake, win) — Kairos's bucket-keyed reconstruction
probability
book-vig-overround draft
What sportsbook vig is, how to compute market overround, and what the magnitudes mean
expected-value-basic draft
What expected value is for a single bet, the formula, sign convention, and units
kalshi-yes-no-semantics draft
What Yes and No contracts mean on a Kalshi binary market, what each price represents, and why the two prices both exist
kalshi-yes-to-american-odds draft
Converting a Kalshi Yes (or No) cent price to the American-odds equivalent for the right outcome — the conversion that bridges Kalshi binary markets to sportsbook quotes
probit
vig-adjusted-ev draft
EV computed against a devigged fair line vs. EV computed against the raw vigged book line, and why the distinction matters
reference-prices
vf-and-mba-targets draft
VF (vig-free) and MBA (Major Book Average) reference prices, and how to derive evaluation targets from them via the cross-side flip
spread
blended-spread-position draft
When you hold positions across multiple strikes of the same spread or total market, your true exposure is an outcome-by-outcome payoff curve — not a sum of stakes
kalshi-spread-strike-mechanics draft
How Kalshi expresses spread and total markets as a ladder of independent binary markets — and how this composes with cross-strike blended positions
strike
kalshi-spread-strike-mechanics draft
How Kalshi expresses spread and total markets as a ladder of independent binary markets — and how this composes with cross-strike blended positions
targets
vf-and-mba-targets draft
VF (vig-free) and MBA (Major Book Average) reference prices, and how to derive evaluation targets from them via the cross-side flip
total
blended-spread-position draft
When you hold positions across multiple strikes of the same spread or total market, your true exposure is an outcome-by-outcome payoff curve — not a sum of stakes
kalshi-spread-strike-mechanics draft
How Kalshi expresses spread and total markets as a ladder of independent binary markets — and how this composes with cross-strike blended positions
vf
vf-and-mba-targets draft
VF (vig-free) and MBA (Major Book Average) reference prices, and how to derive evaluation targets from them via the cross-side flip
vig
book-vig-overround draft
What sportsbook vig is, how to compute market overround, and what the magnitudes mean
vig-adjusted-ev draft
EV computed against a devigged fair line vs. EV computed against the raw vigged book line, and why the distinction matters
14 concepts. A concept is listed under every tag it carries.